cadusd.ca icon

cadusd.ca

The latest in Canadian / US dollar exchange forecasting, news and currency conversion

$1 USAUSD =

$0.7038 CanadaCAD

$1 Canada = $1.4209 USA

Outlook: Bearish ↘

Recent hot U.S. CPI data has reinforced concerns about sticky service inflation, supporting a 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment and strengthening the US dollar. While indicators like robust Canadian building permits show domestic strength, the powerful surge in U.S. prices is driving up yield expectations and market uncertainty. Federal officials are signaling that sustained inflation is the primary concern, pushing the debate from whether the Fed will hike to when they might cut. This fundamental divergence in rate outlook suggests continued USD outperformance against the CAD.

Resources

Bank of Canada
Policy Interest Rate
Federal Reserve
FOMC / Monetary Policy
CME FedWatch
Rate Cut/Hike Probabilities
Statistics Canada
CPI / Inflation Data
Norbert's Gambit
Low-cost Currency Conversion

Latest News

US stocks might have a bigger problem than just hotter inflation

US stocks took a hit yesterday from the hotter-than-expected September CPI report, which saw headline prices jump and core annual inflation also push up to 2.6%. Tech shares were the ones bearing the brunt of the pain ...

www.forexlive.com

RBNZ’s Conway says October rate decision completely open, OCR more likely to rise

Conway’s comments keep a late-October hike live, which should support the New Zealand dollar against currencies where rate expectations are falling, most notably the Australian dollar after Thursday’s weak jobs rep...

www.forexlive.com

ECB’s Santos Pereira says euro zone inflation is not spreading beyond energy

The comments support the view that the ECB can hold its nerve on an energy-led price shock, which should limit pressure for tighter policy in the near term and leave the euro without a fresh rate-driven boost. His attr...

www.forexlive.com

BOJ’s Koeda says bank should not be overly cautious about raising rates

Koeda’s message leans hawkish: by placing the neutral rate considerably above the current 1.25% policy rate and warning against excessive caution, she keeps further BOJ hikes firmly on the table. That should offer th...

www.forexlive.com

Gold jumps around $40 as Treasury yields retreat from post-CPI high

The rebound suggests markets may have overreacted to the CPI print, with the post-data selloff in Treasuries now looking stretched. For gold, the key level is less a price than a relationship: as long as 10-year yields...

www.forexlive.com

Talk grows that China is routing US Treasury holdings through Canada: Bloomberg

If China’s holdings are more stable than reported, one of the market’s recurring worries, a steady Chinese exit from Treasuries, would carry less weight, which could ease some concern about foreign demand at US deb...

www.forexlive.com

US weighs easing shadow fleet sanctions to cut record tanker freight rates

For oil traders, the signal matters more than the mechanics: Washington is clearly prioritising lower fuel costs ahead of the midterms and is willing to bend sanctions policy to get there. Any added tanker capacity in ...

www.forexlive.com

Australian September 2026 unemployment rate 4.7% (expected 4.6%, prior 4.7%)

Australian employment market data for September 2026.Employment Change -39.3Kexpected 20.0K, prior 39.5K Unemployment Rate 4.7% ... an unfortunate result which does take some reason away for further RBA rate hikes, at...

www.forexlive.com

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.6977 – Reuters estimate

Plenty from China yesterday:investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: dollar softer ahead of US CPI---The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time),...

www.forexlive.com

ICYMI: Citi now expects a December Fed rate hike after hotter September US inflation

Citi’s shift removes one of the last prominent holdouts against a December hike, so the debate moves from whether the Fed tightens again to when. The swing in October pricing, which spiked after the data and then fad...

www.forexlive.com

US inflation is becoming less widespread, and that matters more than the headline rate suggests

US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% in August and a touch above expectations of 3.6%, according to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report. Prices climbed 0.6% on the month, in line wi...

www.forexlive.com

Fed’s Daly: more rate hikes likely needed, but no urgency to move in October

Daly’s comments are the clearest pushback yet against the jump in October hike pricing that followed the CPI data. Expect them to trim the odds of a move on October 27-28 without denting expectations for a December i...

www.forexlive.com

Fed catch up - Goolsbee calls CPI discouraging as Beige Book flags diesel-fuelled price pressure

Together, the two releases make an October hike harder to dismiss. Markets are pricing close to a 40% chance of a move on October 27-28, even though key officials had steered expectations toward December. The oil link ...

www.forexlive.com

investingLive Americas market news wrap: Hot CPI upends markets

US September CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% expectedCanada August building permits rise 8.8% vs 2.0% expectedFed's Beige Book: Nine of 12 districts report growth as price pressures broadenFed’s Goolsbee: CPI was discouraging,...

www.forexlive.com

Fed’s Goolsbee: CPI was discouraging, more bad months would be unacceptable

CPI data was ‘discouraging’Service inflation in CPI was a concernKey to focus on trend of inflation, not one reportHearing about cost and prices from contacts, not hearing about worries about recessionHopes energy ...

www.forexlive.com

Canadian dollar touches an 18-month low as the US dollar jumps on hot CPI

The US dollar is broadly stronger today and that briefly pushed it to the highest against the Canadian dollar since April 2025. The peak was 1.4299 (or 0.6993 CAD). The 70-cent level is a sensitive one domestically and...

www.forexlive.com

What technical levels are in play now for the broader US stock indices following the higher CPI data?

US stocks fall after CPI. Sellers make a play, but key support remains intact.Nasdaq 100 is closest to a key downside break as buyers defend support across the broader indices.The higher-than-expected CPI data has US s...

www.forexlive.com

What are the key levels in play for the US dollar after the hotter than expected CPI

The US CPI came in higher than expectations and that has stocks lower, yields higher, and the dollar moving to the upside.Where are the problem areas?Energy is the immediate problem. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in September,...

www.forexlive.com

Today's Federal Reserve speaker slate suddenly got much more interesting

The stakes around the October Federal Reserve meeting suddenly got much higher. Today's US CPI report was hot across the board, including in core measures that are less volatile than the energy-driven headline. Th...

www.forexlive.com

S&P 500 technical analysis after the CPI selloff

S&P 500 futures: CPI selloff threatens the recovery channel, with a lower support test in viewS&P 500 E-mini futures have turned lower following the US CPI report, with the four-hour chart showing a potentially...

www.forexlive.com

Community Sentiment

No sentiment votes yet

Sign in to share your outlook

No comments yet. Be the first to share your outlook!