High energy could bring inflation but could also weigh on growthRates are in a good place, baseline is staying on hold for whileRisks go in both ways for monetary policyThe job market is reasonably in balanceFed has be...

Prior was -3.0% (revised to -3.1%)Wholesale sales vs +2.0% vs +2.3% expectedPrior wholesale -1.0% (revised to -1.1%)The Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM), conducted by Statistics Canada, is a key indicator of the h...

Prior +0.9%HICP +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y prelimPrior +1.1%On the month itself, headline inflation rose by 1.0% and that is largely tied to a surge in energy prices (+8.9%). That's no surprise given the impact of the US-I...

Yellen sees one Fed rate cut still possible this year, despite inflation risks from the Iran war shifting market expectations away from easing.Summary:Janet Yellen sees one Fed cut still possible this year Iran war dr...

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. ...

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. Ch...

Summary:Bessent signals tariffs could return to prior levels by July Treasury still sees strong US growth, potentially above 3–3.5% Policy stance framed as “de-risking,” not full China decoupling Tariff threat...

It's not impossible to see the Fed and ECB take different paths in the short termWe are absolutely focused on delivering on inflation targetIf shocks take inflation off target but not persistently, we should be mea...

When US tariffs were struck down by a 6-3 decision in the Supreme Court, the President announced a 10% global tariff under a different authority immediately. This was done under Section 122, which has a 150-day limit a...

A rise in 2026 inflation is unavoidable but medium-term effect is still unclearECB is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East conflict and the spillover effects on the Eurozone economyMonetary policy should ...

Prior +2.3%HICP +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y prelimPrior +2.5%Core annual inflation is seen at 2.9% and that is a step up from the 2.7% reading in February. As higher energy prices bump up headline inflation, it will eventually ...

Summary:Bessent urges Fed to “wait and see” on rate cuts Sees recent inflation spike as temporary Confident inflation expectations remain anchored Notes strong economic momentum into early 2026 Geopolitical ris...

HSBC warns energy shock will persist without Middle East peace deal.Summary:HSBC warns peace deal key to restoring energy flows Oil near $100 as Hormuz disruption persists ~10mb/d supply already impacted, more at ris...

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.PBOC injects 1bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. T...

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. Ch...

MAS tightens policy as imported inflation rises, even as growth outlook softens. An expected move. Summary:MAS tightens via steeper S$NEER appreciation slope No change to band width or centre Inflation forecasts rais...

Prior was +4.8%Non-residential -24.0%Residential +1.7%This drop was mostly the result of quirks as institutional permits were halved in the month. Often times these are lumpy things like hospitals. When you look at com...

The optimism that briefly buoyed global markets last week has vanished as traders firm up rate hike bets for major central banks following the collapse of the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad this weekend. The breakdow...

Japanese economy, prices moving roughly in line with BOJ forecastsFinancial markets are seeing unstable movements due to conflict in the Middle EastRising oil prices are weighing on Japan's economy due to worsening...

The BOK is signalling readiness to respond to excessive won weakness as geopolitical risks drive FX volatility, while inflation concerns rise and growth remains uneven.Summary:BOK governor nominee flags readiness to ac...