Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 75 bps (79% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)ECB: 52 bps (89% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoJ: 42 bps (71% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoE: 32 b...

Fed can look through energy shock if it stays credible on monetary policyStill early to gauge Middle East war's impact on the economyReacting to temporary energy shock could weigh down economyI'm optimistic the...

Prior was -0.6%GDP +0.0% q/q vs -0.2% priorMarch GDP -0.1% vs +0.0% expectedPrior +0.2%Full report hereReal gross domestic product was unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, after declining 0.2% in the fourth quarter ...

Prior +2.9%HICP +2.7% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.9%Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.3% priorThe German states inflation readings released earlier in the day were much lower than the prior month, so a notable miss on the nat...

My primary concern is inflation, which is too hot and has been above target for too longNow is not the time to let down our guardUS economy is less exposed to energy shock relative to the pastBut I would place little s...

We have to monitor the situation in the Middle EastNeed to see how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely, and adjust policy as requiredIn having taken expected rate cuts off the table for now, we have al...

CPI +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y expectedPrior +2.7%HICP +3.3% vs +3.2% y/y expectedPrior +2.8%The initial estimates indicate that inflation pressures in Italy continued to push up in May. The jump as it was in April owes much t...

Here are all the state readings released around the same time:Bavaria CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.7% vs +3.0% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.4% vs +2.7% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.4% vs +2...

Unemployment change -12k vs 10k expectedPrior 20kUnemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.4% expectedPrior 6.4%The jobless figure shows a drop of 12,000 and that brings the overall unadjusted number of unemployed persons to 2.95 mi...

CPI +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.2%HICP +3.6% vs +3.6% y/y expectedPrior +3.5%The preliminary estimate shows that Spanish headline inflation held steady in May, keeping at a similar rate to April. However, core ...

CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior +2.2%HICP +2.8% vs +2.9% y/y expectedPrior +2.5%On the month itself, French headline inflation was up 0.1% in May compared to April. That reflects some moderation in energy prices o...

Inflation in Germany ran up in April largely on the back of higher energy prices. That saw headline prices move up to near 3% and is once again expected to keep thereabouts in May. After the initial flurry from the ear...

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in Reykjavik Friday at 0910 GMT, followed by hawk Catherine Mann in Dubrovnik Saturday at 0940 GMT and Megan Greene on stablecoins Sunday at 1230 GMT.Bank of England Governor Andrew Ba...

RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said the OCR is likely to increase sooner and by more than previously signalled, citing Middle East conflict-driven inflation, weaker growth and rising input costs across New Zealand and its t...

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here.Injects 123bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. ...

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. Ch...

Tokyo core CPI rose 1.3% y/y in May, missing the 1.5% forecast and extending a six-month slowdown, as fuel and education subsidies offset rising import costs, complicating the BOJ's case for a June rate hike. Summa...

RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk said inflation pressures are building in the near term and the bias is toward rate increases at coming meetings, adding the bank can act without waiting for quarterly CPI data.Summary...

The core-core is excluding food and energy. its risen at its slowest rate since September 2024.ADDED - details and BoJ implications here:Tokyo core CPI misses forecasts in May, complicating case for BOJ June rate hike ...

The major US stock indices close at record levelsReports that Iran targeted 4 American ships that attempted to cross the Straits of HormuzCrude Oil futures settle up $0.22 at $88.90. Technical bias is to the downside.T...