I am uneasy with frontloading rate cutsRates should come down with inflationInflation data is still worrisomeI'm not decided for what happens at next Fed meetingThreshold for cutting higher than at last two Fed mee...

The USDCAD is up 0.40% and pushing into a key swing area between 1.4060 and 1.4067—a zone defined by multiple swing highs and lows from October 14 to October 21. A sustained move above this region would expose the Oc...

Prior was 49.1Prices paid 58.0 vs 61.5 expected (prior 61.9)Employment 46.0 vs 45.3 priorNew orders 49.4 vs 48.9 priorImports 45.4 vs 44.7 priorProduction 48.2 vs 51.0 priorUS stock markets opened higher but the S&...

Prelim reading was 52.2 September final was 52.0This is a a larger than expected revision but eyes are on the ISM survey at the top of the hour. The consensus is a reading of 49.5 from 49.1 previously. ...

Prior was 47.7This isn't great but for all the tariffs, it's also not that bad either. There has been a slow recovery since Trump started with the tariffs.USD/CAD is up 51 pips to 1.4061 today with the loonie a...

Currently it's a comfortable situation for the ECBRisks remain high, even if they haven't materialized or worsened recentlyThe market is pricing in a 50% chance of a single ECB rate cut in the year ahead. The m...

The USD is higher vs most of the major currencies to start the US session, the new week, and the new month. The move continues the trend started last week after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but said December wa...

Fed's Miran: Will not commit to another dissent in December, things could changeRBA preview: "material miss" on inflation erases rate cut betsECB's Kazimir: No time or need to fine-tune or overengineer ...

Repeats neutral rate is quite a way below the current policy rateA lot of factors drive financial marketsIt is a mistake to make conclusions about monetary policy from financial conditions aloneSome financial metrics a...

EXPECTATIONSThe RBA is widely expected to hold the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.6% tomorrow after the "material miss" (quoting RBA's Governor Bullock) on inflation. In fact, the Australian Q3 inflation report l...

I would not read too much into small deviations from a desired inflation pathI see the risk as broadly balanced for both the economy and inflationOur next move could, in principle, be in either direction, depending on ...

Prior 46.2Full report hereKey findings:Output rises for first time in a year Total new orders and new export orders contract at slower ratesComment:Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:“The...

We'll have more insight on inflation in DecemberSimkus spoke already on Friday and he's not adding much here. He's been leaning more on the dovish side, but it looks like he's fine in keeping the policy...

Prior was 49.8Full report hereKey findings:New orders flatline and employment falls in October, but output creeps higherComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial B...

Prior was 49.5Full report hereKey findings:Output prices rise for first time in six monthsComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: "Germany’s manufacturi...

Prior was 48.2Full report Key findings:Factory output falls markedly as new orders decrease again Manufacturers anticipate lower production levels over the next 12 months Competitive pressures drive further discounting...

Prior was 49.0Full report hereKey findings:Output volumes up marginally, despite fractional drop in order books Cost pressures intensify as charges discounted Confidence improves to strongest in over a yearComment:Comm...

Prior 46.3The agency notes that protectionist policies continually weigh on the industry but add that the mood has improved since September. The manufacturing PMI has never been above 50.0 since January 2023, but the t...

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Prior was 51.5Full report hereKey findings:Stronger gains in both output and new orders Confidence improved, but staffing levels down slightly Price pressures dissipateComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhuse...